📅 Thursday, June 19
► European markets slide as war tensions rise & central banks signal uncertainty
European markets declined across the board, pressured by geopolitical concerns and diverging central bank actions. The Stoxx 600 fell -0.45%, led by losses in the CAC 40 (-0.9%), DAX (-0.7%), FTSE 100 (- 0.3%) less strong due to importance of energy in the UK, FTSE MIB (-0.85%), and IBEX 35 (-0.85%). Bond yields rose: UK 10Y hit 4.51%, Germany’s Bund rose to 2.50%. The Bank of England held rates at 4.25% but revealed growing internal pressure to cut, while the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly (not unexpected for us) slashed rates to zero and not ruling out going negative. EUR/USD hovered at 1.14750 (flat for the day).
► US markets retreat as Fed stays cautious & fears US gets involved in Israel-Iran conflict grow
US markets (futures) are trading lower while regular trading is closed for a holiday, with futures falling: S&P -0.9%, Nasdaq -1.0%, Dow -0.9%. The Fed kept its rate range at 4.25%-4.5% and projected still two cuts this year, but also warned of persistent inflation and slower 2025 growth (revised to 1.4%). Chair Powell signaled a “wait-and-see” approach amid Trump’s ongoing tariff campaign. Analyst took it first positively but then markets realized that the outlook for rate cuts – especially beyond 2025 is now further reduced and overall remaining uncertain. Rising odds of US military involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict added to market nerves which makes it unlikely that investors are opening LONG positions for now according to SmartTrader's chief analyst Robert Lindner. The USD is little changed.
► Asian markets drop on geopolitical fears & US-China uncertainty
Asian equities were mostly in the red as traders reacted to a worsening outlook in the Middle East and renewed US-China tensions. The Hang Seng plunged -1.99%, Shenzhen -1.22%, Shanghai -0.79%, and Taiwan -1.58%. Japan’s Nikkei dropped -1.02%, despite positive tech earnings. SGX-CNBC China Growth Index lost -1.82%, signaling broader regional weakness. Singapore’s STI fell -0.68%, Malaysia -0.7%, India’s Nifty 50 -0.08%. South Korea’s Kospi (+0.19%) was the rare gainer. The yen weakened to 145.42 vs USD, while AUD and NZD also lost ground on worsening risk sentiment as predicted by SmartTrader's Lindner.
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