Equity futures, bonds and the USD barely moved as traders looked to the mixed economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's next moves. Yesterday's Fed meeting minutes also did little to dissuade the market from the optimistic assumption that the Fed (and other major central banks) have already completed their monetary tightening measures.
Nvidia once again (significantly) beat Wall Street estimates with its earnings numbers, but the strong data apparently failed to convince investors that the incredible growth story can continue. Nvidia is fluctuating in pre-market trading and looks set to open slightly higher (currently at +0.7%). Microsoft is benefiting from the return of Sam Altman as CEO to OpenAI – a company in which Microsoft is heavily invested.
Oil prices cooled after OPEC+ postponed its meeting over the weekend as talks on production levels stalled.
Applications for unemployment benefits in the US fell last week after a series of rises, providing some relief in an otherwise gradually cooling labor market. The better than expected labor market data led to lower yields in the short term as interest rate cut expectations were slightly reduced. At the same time, however, new orders for durable goods fell more than expected in October as bookings for commercial aircraft declined and demand for business equipment weakened. This is a further sign of a weakening economy and is seen as another reason why the Fed no longer sees any scope for interest rate hikes.
Wall Street will likely see some gains (after yesterday's negative session), but these are likely to turn into profit-taking towards the end of today as markets prepare for the Thanksgiving holiday. Despite important economic data and Nvidia's earnings report, which shows that the high expectations for AI sales can be met, trading volumes are already holiday-thinned.
👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
November 22, 2023
🇺🇸 US Markets ↗️/➡️/↘️ (profit taking 2 hours post NYSE opening and towards the end of today's session)
Cyclical Stocks ➡️/↗️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️/➡️/↘️ (Early gains of Microsoft / Nvidia may result in a good start into today's session; later profit taking)
Financial Stocks ↗️/➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️/↘️
Energy Stocks ↘️/➡️
Materials Stocks ↗️/➡️/↘️
💱 Forex
USD ↗️/➡️ (gains only temporary)
AUD ↗️/➡️
EUR ➡️/↗️
JPY ↘️/↗️ (losses temporary, JPY remains in recovery)
GBP, CHF ➡️/↘️
CAD ↘️
⚒ Commodity Markets ↕️/↗️ (benefiting from weak USD)
Oil prices ↘️ (sharp losses -4%+ but stabilizing in second half of US trading)
Natural Gas prices ➡️
Metal prices ➡️/↘️
Gold ➡️/↗️
⚡️Cryptos ➡️/↘️ (with volatile news around Binance / and Binance CEO Zhao resigning)
(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert