📅 Tuesday, July 15
► Nvidia receives chip license for China & continues global (tech) rally
Markets pushed higher after a surprise policy reversal allowed Nvidia to resume AI chip sales to China. The news helped the Nasdaq 100 futures climb +0.6%, with Nvidia jumping +4.8%, reigniting the AI trade and sending European tech shares higher. However, European equities were unable to extend yesterday's after-hours gains. The Stoxx 600 gained +0.25%, and Germany’s DAX rose +0.25%, helped by the belief that this move may signal improving trade dynamics between the US and China. The CAC 40 is up a moderate 0.15% while UK's FTSE 100 which consists of little tech stocks is trading near flat. The EUR/USD trades near flat at 1.168.
► Wall Street eyes CPI print, bank earnings kickoff
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both near/at record highs, supported by investors pricing in the best case scenario around earnings and inflation. Wall Street was cooling overnight but received a strong lift from the Nvidia surprise. Today’s CPI data is expected at +0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. Options pricing implies a ~0.6% move in the S&P 500, underscoring the potential for post-data volatility. With JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo reporting today, the second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest. While expectations are muted, any positive surprises could extend the market’s rally. Investors will also watch closely for any kind of warnings in earnings calls of the Wall Street banks. The USD eased slightly, and 10Y Treasury yields slipped to 4.41%, reflecting positioning ahead of the data.
► Asia-Pacific climbs; investors shrug off trade noise
Asian markets closed broadly higher. Hang Seng surged +1.6%, buoyed by tech sentiment and Nvidia-linked optimism. Japan’s Nikkei added +0.55%, while Korea’s Kospi rose +0.41%. Australia’s ASX 200 gained +0.7%, and India’s Nifty advanced +0.45%. Despite the broader rise, Shanghai dipped -0.42% in quiet trade. Regional currencies held mostly steady, with USD/JPY at 147.7 (=unchanged). Overall, Asian equities seem to be pricing in a calmer tone from Washington, especially after Trump stated that he is open to talks on tariffs, toning down last week's rhetoric in which he threatened 30% tariffs.
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