🗓 Tuesday, September 16, 2025
► Europe slightly weaker – sentiment supported by German ZEW
European equities are slightly lower as traders awaited tomorrow’s Fed decision. Stoxx 600 -0.25%, DAX -0.45%, CAC 40 -0.15%, FTSE 100 -0.25%, FTSE MIB -0.30%, IBEX -0.75%. Luxury and consumer names outperformed. German ZEW expectations rose to 37.3 (prev. 34.7, expected 25), lifting hopes that Europe’s largest economy is exiting its downturn. Bund yields steady at 2.70%, OAT/Bund spreads stable. EUR/USD 1.181 (+0.4%), GBP/USD 1.364 (+0.3%), USD/JPY 146.9 (-0.35%) as softer dollar supports risk assets.
► Wall Street remains strong – focus shifts to retail sales and Fed
US futures pointed to continued strength: Nasdaq 100 futures +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow +0.1%. Tech stocks remain the main driver, with Tesla +4% premarket and Alphabet joining the $3T market cap club. Investors are focused on today’s August retail sales (consensus +0.2% m/m), but only a very large surprise could shift expectations ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision. Markets price a 25 bps cut with near-100% probability, and some traders are positioning for a more dovish signal for 2025. Treasury yields stable: US 10Y 4.02%, 30Y 4.63%. USD broadly weaker (DXY -0.25%).
► Asia broadly higher – Record highs, JPY in focus
Asian markets extended their rally, MSCI Asia Pacific +0.7% to fresh record highs. Nikkei +0.3% supported by exporters, Kospi +1.25%, Taiwan +1.1%, Shenzhen +0.45%, Shanghai +0.05%, Hang Seng -0.03%. USD/JPY 146.9 (-0.35%) – the stronger yen was a key watchpoint for traders ahead of the Fed decision. USD/CNY 7.114, AUD/USD 0.667 (little changed).
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