🗓 Friday, September 26, 2025
► Europe mixed – awaits US inflation data
European equities traded slightly higher as traders awaited the crucial US PCE inflation print, the Fed’s preferred measure. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.35%, CAC 40 +0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.3%, FTSE MIB +0.4%, IBEX +0.6%. Bund 10Y 2.76% (-1bp), UK 10Y 4.74% (-2bps). EUR/USD 1.167 (flat), GBP/USD 1.335 (flat), USD/JPY 149.9 (+0.1%). Sentiment was cautious after strong US GDP data (+3.8% annualized, fastest in nearly 2 years) dampened hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts that markets have already priced in. Trade tensions and new US tariffs on trucks and pharmaceuticals weighed on autos and healthcare.
► Wall Street futures steady – PCE in focus, Fed doubts rising
US futures hovered near flat as investors braced for August PCE inflation data. S&P 500 futures flat, Nasdaq 100 -0.1%, Dow +0.2%. The strong GDP revision reinforced doubts about two more rate cuts this year, with swap markets pricing in now ~39bps of easing. AI enthusiasm and elevated valuations continue to drive debate after recent consolidation. US 10Y yield 4.17% (flat). The USD remains firm near weekly highs. Traders see today’s PCE as key to shaping the Fed’s tone into next week’s NFP report.
► Asia mostly lower – tech weakness, China drags
Asian markets ended weaker as tech sentiment softened and concerns over Fed policy lingered. Nikkei -0.9%, Kospi -2.4%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Shanghai -0.7%, Shenzhen -1.8%, Taiwan -1.7%. ASX +0.2%, Malaysia +0.7%. USD/JPY 149.9 (+0.1%) as the yen remains under pressure from rate differentials and the increased expectation that the Fed may cut only one more time before the end of the year. Chinese equities weighed by renewed property stress and sluggish investor confidence.
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