🗓 Thursday, December 4, 2025
► Europe catches up – global risk rally broadens, but momentum slows
European equities traded higher as regional markets tried to catch up with Wall Street’s strong recent gains. Europe opened firm with broad-based advances across autos, retail and cyclicals: Stoxx 600 +0.46%, DAX +1.0%, CAC 40 +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.2%, FTSE MIB +0.1%, IBEX 35 +0.5%, SMI +0.5%. The rally showed early signs of a breather with gains more measured and some markets drifting sideways. EUR/USD 1.166 (-0.1%), GBP/USD 1.333 (-0.2%), EUR/JPY 180.6 (-0.3%).
► Wall Street steady – seven wins in eight sessions; jobless claims temper cut euphoria
US futures were little changed as markets paused after a powerful Fed-driven rebound. S&P 500 futures +0.1%, Nasdaq 100 flat to -0.1%, Dow +0.1%. Equities remain supported by still high expectations for a December 10 Fed rate cut, but today’s better-than-expected jobless claims (both initial and continuing filings below consensus) slightly cooled rate cut hopes. Market-implied odds for a 25 bps cut dipped from around 89–90% to roughly 87.5%, providing a mild headwind to US indices after seven gains in the last eight sessions. Rotation beneath the surface continues: tech leadership has faded somewhat, while small caps and cyclicals, along with selected defensives, have taken a bigger role in the rally. Yields ticked higher as the US labor signal looked more mixed versus yesterday’s weak ADP print.
► Asia mixed to higher – Japan leads, China lags; year-end rally narrative intact
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose, extending the global risk-on move but with more selective strength. Nikkei +2.3% jumped on catch-up buying in large-cap tech and financials, supported by ongoing Fed cut hopes and still-accommodative BoJ policy. HSI +0.7%, Taiwan and ASX modestly higher, while Shanghai -0.1%, Shenzhen +0.4%, Kospi -0.2%. Investors continued to price in a supportive global backdrop into year-end, helped by expectations for easier US policy and stabilizing crypto, though persistent structural concerns in China kept mainland indices lagging the broader region.
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