🗓 Wednesday, September 17, 2025
► Europe slightly higher – marking time before the Fed
European equities inched up while traders avoided big bets ahead of tonight’s Fed decision and dot plot update. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.1%, CAC 40 flat, FTSE 100 +0.15%, FTSE MIB -0.7%. Core bonds a touch firmer: Bund 10Y ~2.68% (-1bp); OAT/Bund spreads steady. FX quiet: EUR/USD 1.184 (-0.2%), GBP/USD 1.364. The risk for equities & risk sentiment: a less-dovish message versus markets pricing a cut today and three more by April.
► Wall Street pauses – all about Powell’s tone & the dots
US futures were little changed (S&P 500 ~flat, Nasdaq 100 ~flat, Dow ~flat) as investors look for guidance on the pace of easing into 2026 and possible FOMC dissents after July’s rare split vote. Nvidia -1.2% premarket after reports that a Chinese watchdog told major tech firms to terminate orders for the RTX Pro 6000D, adding a headline risk for megacap tech. Treasuries firmer: US 10Y ~4.01% (-2bps). Markets price a 25 bps cut with ~96% probability; 50 bps (4%) seen as unlikely but not impossible.
► Asia mixed – USD/JPY steady, China headlines in focus
MSCI Asia Pacific continued to hover near record highs. Nikkei -0.25%, Kospi -1.05%, Taiwan -0.75% on chip softness; Hong Kong +1.8%, Shanghai +0.37%, Shenzhen +1.16%. USD/JPY 146.35 (-0.1%) stayed in focus as the key Asia FX gauge ahead of the Fed; USD/CNY 7.10, AUD/USD 0.667 (-0.1%). Traders balanced the softer dollar with China’s Nvidia-related move. Also the ongoing US-CN trade talks remain in focus.
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