🗓 Monday, September 15, 2025
► Europe higher – luxury leads, but China jitters cap gains
European markets opened firmer, led by luxury and consumer shares, as traders weighed weaker Chinese data and an antitrust ruling against Nvidia. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.25%, CAC 40 +1.0%, FTSE MIB +0.85%, IBEX +0.55%, FTSE 100 flat. French OATs (government bonds) weakened after Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating – as forecast last week by SmartTrader Chief Analyst Robert Lindner – causing spreads (e.g., vs. German government bonds) to widen slightly. German Bunds remained stable around ~2.69%. EUR/USD 1.175 (+0.2%), GBP/USD 1.360 (+0.3%).
► Wall Street – cautious start after last week’s records
US futures mixed: Dow +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq 100 -0.1%. Nvidia -2.5% premarket after Beijing’s antitrust ruling, raising concerns about regulatory headwinds. Vaccine makers under pressure on reports health officials plan to link Covid shots to ~two dozen child deaths, though causality remains unproven. Market attention remains firmly on Wednesday’s Fed decision: a 25 bps cut is fully priced (≈96% probability; 4% for 50 bps cut), but traders look for signals on the pace of further cuts into 2025. Empire State Manufacturing Index and retail sales (Tuesday) will be key to gauging US consumer resilience. Treasuries are unchanged: US 10Y 4.06% (flat), 30Y 4.65% (flat).
► Asia – mixed session; China data disappoints
MSCI Asia Pacific briefly topped 2021 highs before fading. Shanghai -0.25%, Shenzhen +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.2% as property and consumer stocks pared gains. Nikkei +0.9% outperformed, supported by exporters. Kospi +0.35%, Taiwan -0.45% after chip sector profit-taking. USD/JPY 147.3 (-0.25%), a small risk-off signal, kept in focus as traders assessed both US yields and China’s antitrust headlines. AUD/USD 0.666 (+0.1%), USD/CNY 7.121 (-0.03%).
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