📆 Friday, December 6
► European markets saw a mixed performance as traders exercised caution ahead of the critical US jobs report. The European Stoxx 600 rose by 0.2%, as GDP and employment change data rose but remained within expectations. France’s CAC 40, however, climbed more than 1.1%, extending it's rebound after a period of strong underperformance, despite the recent government collapse. This comes after Marine Le Pen’s announcement that a budget could be finalized within weeks. French bonds outperformed. Germany’s DAX rose slightly by 0.3%, despite weaker-than-expected German industrial production, which fell 1% in October against hopes for a rebound. Economic data from Germany and France remain very poor. UK’s FTSE 100 is trading 0.1% lower despite upbeat housing data (which is not very important data for the FTSE) showed a 1.3% monthly gain in the Halifax House Price Index.
► US markets remained subdued as investors focused on November’s nonfarm payrolls report, anticipated to show a rebound of 220,000 jobs following disruptions from recent hurricanes and strikes. Futures on major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were little changed, reflecting the market's “wait-and-see” approach. The US 10-year Treasury yield is near flat (up 1 bp) to 4.19%, while swap trading indicated a 68 – 70% likelihood of a December Fed rate cut (down from about 75% earlier this week). I expect data to remain in very good territory, showing ongoing growth of the US economy without overheating.
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