📅 Wednesday, June 18
► European markets decline; interest rate uncertainty & geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment
European equities slipped as traders stayed sidelined ahead of the Fed’s rate decision and amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The Stoxx 600 fell -0.4%, with notable declines in the DAX (-0.4%) and CAC 40 (-0.3%). The FTSE 100 and FTSE MIB were stable (0.0% and +0.1%). Bond yields declined, with the UK 10Y falling to 4.52% and Germany’s Bund to 2.52%. The euro stabilized at around 1.150 vs USD. Tariff concerns and Middle East conflict headlines kept investors risk-averse.
►US futures little changed as markets await Powell's tone & economic forecasts; Situation in Middle East remains in focus
Wall Street futures hovered near the flatline (S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow up 0.1%), with markets in wait-and-see mode ahead of the FOMC decision. Traders expect no rate change but are watching the Fed’s updated economic projections and Powell’s press conference for guidance on cuts later this year including the dot plot update. The 10Y yield edged down to 4.375% showing ongoing demand for bonds. Recent threats by President Trump against Iran and tensions with China added to uncertainty. Analysts warn of stretched valuations and limited cushion for shocks, while silver surged to 12-year highs. Robert Lindner of SmartTrader expects that Powell will remain neutral and resist political pressure to cut interest rates, but sees a potential risk to risk sentiment if the dot plot signals an increased likelihood of a single interest rate cut in 2025.
► Asian equities mixed as China lags, but Japan & Korea push higher
Asian markets were broadly mixed. Japan’s Nikkei rallied +0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi rose +0.74%, supported by resilient tech stocks. Taiwan advanced +0.65%. Mainland China underperformed as US-China tensions persisted — Shanghai gained only +0.04%, while Shenzhen rose +0.24% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped sharply (-1.12%). Singapore’s STI fell -0.25%, India’s Nifty lost -0.17%. Australian shares slipped slightly (-0.12%). Overall sentiment was cautious ahead of the Fed and amid rising concerns of US involvement in the Middle East.
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