📆 Thursday, May 1
► European markets are largely closed for Labor Day. The FTSE 100 (0.0%) in the UK was steady, potentially extending its strong run following 13 (!) consecutive days of gains — the longest streak since 2017. Investors focused on Friday’s upcoming US non-farm payrolls data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. The EUR is little changed on the first day of May and after strong April gains. We see thin trading on the forex markets.
► US equity futures rallied as upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Meta Platforms fueled optimism. Qualcomm's disappointing forecast is weighing less on the markets overall, as Microsoft and Meta are dominating headlines. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose over 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively. Microsoft shares surged over 8.5% in pre-market trading after forecasting stronger cloud growth, while Meta gained about 6% after topping revenue expectations. Qualcomm trades about 6% lower in pre-market trading (congrats – as we are SHORT in the chip giant). The S&P 500 had already recovered from a 2% intraday loss on Wednesday to close slightly higher, as hopes for constructive trade talks and possible Fed rate cuts lifted sentiment. The White House signaled progress on trade deals and confirmed proactive outreach to China, though President Trump emphasized he would not rush agreements to appease markets. Traders increased bets on Fed easing later this year after data showed the first US economic contraction since 2022. Tech giants Apple and Amazon are next to report (today – after the bell). It will be another very big and busy earnings day. Eli Lilly just reported and is trading now 3.3% lower in pre-market trading cuts profit outlook even as overall sales soar 45% on weight loss drug demand. MCD reported minutes ago the largest U.S. same-store sales decline since 2020 and falls about 1.8% as immediate reaction.
► Asian markets traded higher in light holiday trading. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.22% to a one-month high after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.5% and trimmed growth forecasts. The JPY weakened past 144/USD. Japan’s manufacturing PMI was revised higher but remained in contraction territory, while consumer confidence slipped for a fifth straight month. Australia’s ASX rose a little over 0.2%, with mining and energy shares pressured by softer commodity prices. However, the AUD strengthened after a larger-than-expected trade surplus and signs of resilient domestic demand. Taiwan upgraded its 2025 growth forecast to 3.6% amid strong tech-driven exports. Most other Asian markets remained closed for Labor Day.
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