🗓 Friday, August 15
► Europe edges higher on geopolitical hopes; Gains in the financial sector
European markets posted modest gains ahead of key US retail sales data and the Trump–Putin summit. The Stoxx 600 added +0.25%, with the DAX up +0.30% and CAC 40 +0.75%, boosted by banks and luxury stocks. The FTSE 100 was nearly flat at +0.08% as energy underperformed following Wells Fargo’s downgrade of the sector. Italy’s FTSE MIB rose +1.1%, outperforming on strong financials. Bond yields ticked higher (Bund 10Y +3.8bps to 2.745%, UK 10Y +2.2bps to 4.665) as traders priced in limited downside surprises from US data. EUR/USD strengthened to 1.169 (+0.35%), GBP/USD to 1.356, while EUR/JPY eased to 171.70.
► US futures inch higher as traders eye consumer health
Wall Street futures point to further gains but trade flat ahead of US retail sales — S&P 500 -0.05%, Nasdaq 100 flat, Dow -0.05% — following a slightly positive session on Thursday when the S&P 500 closed at a record for the third consecutive day. Today’s focus is on July retail sales, import/export price data, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading. Intel gained over 2.7% (after rising 7.38% yesterday) premarket on reports of US government stake talks, while Applied Materials (-14.6%) fell on weak guidance. Treasury yields were steady (10Y 4.21%, 2Y 3.72%) as the dollar gave back most of yesterday's gains -0.3%. Markets remain sensitive to any geopolitical headlines from the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, though expectations for major breakthroughs are low.
► Asia mixed as Japan rallies, China struggles
Asian equities showed divergence. Nikkei 225 surged +1.71% to 43,378 after stronger-than-expected GDP data, while Shanghai Composite climbed +0.83% to 3,697 and Shenzhen +1.60% to 11,635 on hopes for targeted stimulus. Hang Seng lagged at -0.98% to 25,270 after disappointing Chinese factory and retail data signaled trade war drag. Kospi was flat, while ASX 200 gained +0.73% on mining strength. FX saw USD/JPY fall to 146.87, USD/CNY soften to 7.178, and AUD/USD rise to 0.651.
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