📅 Monday, June 30
► European markets tread water even as trade talks progress; EUR firms
European stocks traded flat to slightly lower, with investors weighing renewed trade optimism against growing concerns over US fiscal policy. The Stoxx 600 slipped -0.1%, while the DAX and IBEX both dropped -0.20%. The FTSE 100 (-0.1%) and FTSE MIB (-0.15%) also edged lower. France’s CAC (+0.05%) bucked the trend with a small gain / near flat. We see overall European market with little trading activity at the start of the week with investors waiting for more guidance and news about ongoing trade talks. EUR/USD rose to 1.173, marking its highest level in over a year, while the German Bund yield (10y) held steady at 2.58%. Markets remained also cautious ahead of upcoming US job data and further details on Trump’s controversial tax-cut bill.
► US futures extend gains as USD slumps further & trade sentiment remains positive
US equity futures rose across the board in pre-market trading (S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Dow +0.5%) with investors chasing the rally on hopes of continued trade progress. Canada scrapped its digital services tax, prompting renewed US talks, while India extended its Washington visit. Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) sank nearly 9% year-to-date, nearing its worst H1 since records began – today down 0.2%. The 10Y yield fell to 4.26% (down 2-3 bps), supporting the bullish narrative. Traders now look to Thursday’s payrolls for rate-cut clues, with Fed swaps pricing in up to three cuts in 2025.
► Asia trades mixed even as China disappoints again, while Japan extends breakout
Asia-Pacific markets posted uneven results. Japan’s Nikkei rallied +0.84% to a fresh 11-month high, buoyed by tech momentum and yen softness (USD/JPY 144.27). Korea’s Kospi rose +0.52% and Australia’s ASX added +0.33%. Mainland China showed resilience — Shanghai rose +0.59% and Shenzhen +0.83% — despite weak PMI readings. However, Taiwan’s TWSE tumbled -1.44% on a sharp currency reversal. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped -0.87%, weighed by property sector concerns. India’s Nifty fell -0.47% amid profit-taking.
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