🗓 Wednesday, October 1, 2025
► Europe firmer – pharma leads after tariff reprieve
European equities opened stronger, supported by gains in healthcare after Pfizer and peers won a reprieve from Trump’s threatened drug tariffs. Stoxx 600 +0.55%, DAX +0.30%, CAC 40 +0.40%, FTSE 100 +0.65%, FTSE MIB +0.2%, IBEX +0.05%. Bund 10Y 2.70% (-1bp), UK 10Y 4.70% (flat). EUR/USD 1.175 (+0.15%), GBP/USD 1.350 (+0.45%), USD/JPY 146.8 (-0.7%) as the dollar extended its 4-day slide and saw additional headwinds after a weaker than expected ADP (private payrolls)report. Traders remain cautious as the US government shutdown begins, risking delayed economic reports including NFP and jobless claims, which could blur Fed policy visibility. Gold’s rise reflects safe-haven flows and dovish expectations.
► Wall Street futures lower – shutdown, data blackout weigh; ADP data surprisingly soft
US futures slipped as the first government shutdown in seven years raised uncertainty over economic visibility. Nasdaq 100 -0.5%, S&P 500 -0.4%, Dow -0.4%. The ADP jobs report showed a surprise decline (-32K), signalinglabor softening ahead of Friday’s potentially postponed NFP release. Traders worry the Fed may face data gaps ahead of the late-October meeting, increasing volatility despite a 90% chance priced for another rate cut. The USD weakened for a fourth day (DXY -0.2%), while Treasuries rallied (US 10Y 4.13%, -2bps).Markets brace for prolonged negotiations in Congress.
► Asia mixed – tech, HK outperform; Japan lags
Asian markets closed mixed. Hang Seng +0.9%, Shenzhen +0.35%, Shanghai +0.5%, Kospi +0.9% and Taiwan +0.6% rose on tech optimism and dovish Fed expectations. Nikkei -0.85%, ASX -0.05% lagged. USD/JPY 146.8 (-0.75%) as yen strengthened on lower yields. Sentiment across Asia was lifted by hopes for sustained Fed easing and improving AI demand in China.
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