Global markets calmed somewhat at the start of the week as analysts eased concerns that international diplomatic efforts could further escalate the Iran-Israel stand-off. Stocks in Europe and the US rebounded after another round of heavy selling on Friday, triggered by concerns that the situation in the Middle East could escalate further.
We also see financials recovering, supported by a strong earnings report from investment bank Goldman Sachs in pre-market trading after the Wall Street giant posted a surprise jump in profits. We see markets reducing current risk premiums for equities, although the situation in the Middle East remains volatile after Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones over the weekend. We are also seeing the reduction in the risk premium in oil and safe-haven gold, both of which are trading well below last week's highs. Defense contractors are outperforming other industries in pre-market US / European trading.
The Iranian attack on Israel – a direct attack – while unprecedented, caused little damage and caused no casualties as almost all projectiles were intercepted. The US, British and French air forces also assisted Israel in intercepting the missiles.
We have an eventful week ahead with lots of inflation data (US, UK, Italy, Canada, Japan), Chinese growth data and further earnings reports – including from the chip industry (ASML, TSMC).
We are positioned for a rebound and have already taken home a large profit with our DAX LONG. I expect risk assets to (partially) recover from recent losses and end today's trading day in the green.
👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
April 15, 2024
🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/➡️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️
Financial Stocks ↗️ (rebounding from Friday's losses)
Defensive Stocks ↗️/➡️
Energy Stocks ↗️/➡️
Materials Stocks ↗️
💱 Forex
AUD ↗️ (USD to remain in demand; more safe haven USD demand before weekend)
GBP, CAD ↗️/➡️
EUR ↗️/➡️ (slightly rebounding after last week's sharp losses)
USD ➡️
CHF ↘️/➡️
JPY ↘️/➡️ (after sharp losses already, mostly sideways for today)
⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️
Oil prices ↘️/➡️ (slight headwinds first due to lower risk-premium; Oil overall remains bullish)
Natural Gas prices ↘️
Metal prices ↗️
Gold ↗️/↕️ (gold to remain overall bullish – but higher risk of profit taking)
⚡️Cryptos ↘️/↗️/↕️ (with short-term rebound potential after recent losses)
(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
