📅 Wednesday, July 16
► Europe pressured by profit warnings & tariffs; Tech underperforms
European equities trade mixed amid deepening concerns around global trade tensions and sector-specific headwinds. The Stoxx 600 trades slightly lower -0.1%, with tech shares leading losses after ASML (-7%) walked back its 2025 growth guidance, citing trade friction. Renault plunged -17% on a sharp profit downgrade. Despite Renault the CAC 40 is trading flat, while Germany’s DAX trades a bit higher (+0.3%). UK’s FTSE 100 rose +0.2% despite a surprise spike in UK inflation, driven by rising food prices. The EUR/USD was steady near 1.162, with German Bund yields slightly lower, reflecting a cautious mood ahead of US PPI and further macro signals.
► Wall Street awaits PPI as inflation narrative reshapes Fed expectations
US futures drifted as investors reassessed inflation risks and the Fed path. The S&P 500 futures fell -0.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped -0.3%, weighed by renewed trade fears and lower expectations for interest-rate cuts. The June CPI showed headline inflation coming in cooler-than-expected, but sticky components and tariff spillover fears have kept investors on edge. Today’s PPI report (expected +0.2% MoM) will be closely watched for signs of pass-through inflation. Meanwhile, traders now lean more towards just one Fed cut in 2025, the lowest odds in over a month. Attention also shifts to a fresh wave of bank earnings today from Goldman Sachs, BofA, and Morgan Stanley after a lackluster Tuesday showing.
► Asia mostly lower; Huawei’s rise, Indonesia tariffs add geopolitical layers
Asian equity markets lost ground as global uncertainty persisted. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped -0.3%, Korea’s Kospi dropped -0.9%, and Australia’s ASX 200 fell -0.8%, all reversing earlier gains. China’s Shanghai Composite held flat (-0.03%), while Taiwan’s TAIEX outperformed (+0.9%) thanks to tech strength (in particular TSMC). Key geopolitical updates added pressure: Huawei regained the #1 smartphone market spot in China, while Trump announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods. The USD/JPY softened to 148.70, and regional FX held stable. With regional equities already pricing in trade risk, further US policy uncertainty could renew volatility.
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