🗓 Thursday, September 10, 2025
► Europe slightly higher – waiting on CPI & ECB
European equities nudged up as traders avoided big bets ahead of today’s US CPI and the ECB decision. Stoxx 600 +0.2%, DAX flat, CAC 40 +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.4%, FTSE MIB +0.5%, IBEX +0.1%. Bund 10Y 2.66% (+1bp), UK 10Y 4.64% (flat). FX: EUR/USD 1.169 (-0.1%), GBP/USD 1.350 (-0.2%), USD/JPY 147.85 (+0.3%). Consensus looks for core CPI +0.3% m/m; Lagarde’s press conference will be key for near-term EUR moves, with focus on the outlook for further ECB cuts.
► Wall Street flat to slightly higher – CPI the swing factor
Futures were quiet after two consecutive S&P 500 record closes and a cooler-than-expected PPI print. Yesterday’s massive Oracle surge – which also pulled chip giants Nvidia and Broadcom higher – remained the main driver. No company valued above $500B had ever gained over 25% in a single day until Oracle’s explosive move on Wednesday. Nasdaq 100 +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.15%, Dow +0.15%. Money markets fully price a September cut, with some odds on a 50bps move depending on CPI. Jobless claims and the US budget statement are due today; Kroger (pre-open) and Adobe (after close) report earnings. USD slightly firmer into CPI (DXY +0.2%).
► Asia mixed – China strong, Hong Kong softer; Japan rallies
Asia was mixed as the recent tech-led surge paused resulting in the tech heavy Hang Seng for instance to see some profit taking. Shanghai +1.65%, Shenzhen +3.36%, Nikkei +1.22%, Kospi +0.9%, Taiwan +0.09%; Hang Seng -0.43%, ASX 200 -0.29%. FX mostly calm: USD/CNY 7.125, USD/JPY 147.93, AUD/USD 0.660 (-0.2%).
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