📆 Wednesday, March 12
► European stocks opened higher on Wednesday, buoyed by news that Ukraine has accepted a U.S.-brokered 30-day ceasefire plan with Russia. The Stoxx 600 (+0.8%) rebounded after Tuesday’s losses, led by banking stocks (+1.1%). Germany’s DAX (+1.5%) and France’s CAC 40 (+1.1%) jumped as optimism over reduced geopolitical risks helped investor sentiment. Trade tensions persisted, however, when the EU announced countermeasures on $28 billion of U.S. goods in response to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, set to take effect in April. Among individual stocks, Zealand Pharma surged 26% after signing a $5.3 billion obesity drug deal with Roche (+4.3%), while Puma (-25%) tumbled to an eight-year low on weak sales guidance. Porsche (-4.7%) also fell, citing trade tensions and competition in China as major headwinds.
► U.S. stock futures edged higher on Wednesday as investors awaited key inflation data, with S&P 500 futures (+0.5%) and Nasdaq 100 futures (+0.6%) attempting a cautious rebound after recent heavy losses. President Trump reassured business leaders about economic strength (but not providing anything new) despite tariff concerns, but markets remain focused on February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually, with core CPI projected at 0.4%. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, pushing bond yields higher, pressuring tech stocks, and strengthening the USD, while a softer print may boost equities, lower Treasury yields, and support gold. Wall Street strategists remain divided, with Goldman Sachs cutting its S&P 500 target and Citigroup downgrading U.S. equities to ‘neutral.’ Adding to uncertainty, Trump briefly escalated tariffs on Canadian metals before AGAIN (!) reversing course, further amplifying the CPI’s significance in shaping market direction.
► Asian equities struggled to find direction, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 unchanged after BoJ Governor Ueda ruled out immediate intervention in bond markets. Japanese inflation data remained hot, with producer prices rising 4% YoY, marking 48 consecutive months of price increases. China’s Shanghai Composite (-0.2%) hovered around the flatline as investors awaited further policy signals from Beijing following the conclusion of the Two Sessions political meetings. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.76%) declined amid a volatile trading session. Australia’s ASX 200 (-1.32%) sank to a seven-month low after Trump refused to exempt Australia from his 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, raising concerns about the impact on the country’s $1 billion metals export market.
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